I am always hiring.

My research involves a considerable amount of data collection, cleaning, merging, and handling. I would not be able to manage everything without the help of talented and ambitious young economists.

I am searching for people with knowledge of Stata, doing masters in Brazil or Asia and interested in doing a PhD in the US. I favor students with experience on RAIS or other Brazilian administrative datasets, although this is not a requirement.

Many years ago, I was an ambitious young economist in a small marxist school far away from the big centers. Part of my career progression is due to mentors that gave me an opportunity and believed in me. I owe them doing the same to the next generation.

If you are interested, send your CV to: gustavo@microtomacro.net

Cite

@TechReport{RePEc:fip:fedhwp:95159,
  author={Gustavo de Souza},
  title={{The Labor Market Consequences of Appropriate Technology}},
  year=2022,
  month=Sep,
  institution={Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago},
  type={Working Paper Series},
  url={https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/95159.html},
  number={WP 2022-53},
  abstract={Developing countries rely on technology created by developed countries. This paper demonstrates that such reliance increases wage inequality but leads to greater production in developing countries. I study a Brazilian innovation program that taxed the leasing of international technology to subsidize national innovation. I show that the program led firms to replace technology licensed from developed countries with in-house innovations, which led to a decline in both employment and the share of high-skilled workers. Using a model of directed technological change and technology transfer, I find that increasing the share of firms that patent in Brazil by 1 p.p. decreases the skilled wage premium by 0.02% and production by 0.2%},
  keywords={appropriate technology; directed technological change; innovation},
  doi={10.21033/wp-2022-53},
}

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Cite

@TechReport{RePEc:fip:fedhwp:94914,
  author={Gustavo de Souza},
  title={{On Political and Economic Determinants of Redistribution: Economic Gains, Ideological Gains, or Institutions?}},
  year=2022,
  month=Oct,
  institution={Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago},
  type={Working Paper Series},
  url={https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/94914.html},
  number={WP 2022-47},
  abstract={I describe a structural method to quantify the contribution of different elements of social choice to the level of redistribution. Estimating a DSGE model with microdata on the support for redistribution, I find that if voters disregarded their ideological views on welfare policies, redistribution in the U.S. would increase 117\%. Because ideology is a more important determinant of voting behavior than income, increasing voter turnout or capping campaign contributions would have a small effect on redistribution. Among the drivers of ideology, I find that racial animosity and distrust of the government contributes to an 80\% and 44\% smaller redistribution, respectively.},
  keywords={Redistribution; Prefereces for Redistribution; Dynamic Macro Models of Political-Economoy},
  doi={10.21033/wp-2022-47},
}

Cite

@TechReport{RePEc:fip:fedhwp:94915,
  author={Gustavo de Souza and Haishi Li},
  title={{The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil}},
  year=2022,
  month=Oct,
  institution={Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago},
  type={Working Paper Series},
  url={https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/94915.html},
  number={WP 2022-46},
  abstract={Can anti-dumping tariffs increase employment? We compile data on all antidumping (AD) investigations in Brazil matching it to firm-level administrative employment information. Using difference-in-differences, we find that an AD tariff decreases imports and increases employment in the protected sector. Moreover, downstream firms decrease employment, while upstream ones are not affected. To quantify the aggregate effect of these tariffs, we build a model with international trade, input-output linkages, and labor force participation. We show that the Brazilian AD policy increased employment by 0.06\%, but decreased welfare by 2.4\%. Using tariffs, the government can increase employment by as much as 2.8\%.},
  keywords={Employment; Tariffs; Anti-Dumping; International Trade},
  doi={},
}

Cite

@article{DESOUZA2024103572,
title = {(Trade) War and peace: How to impose international trade sanctions},
journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
pages = {103572},
year = {2024},
issn = {0304-3932},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103572},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393224000254},
author = {Gustavo {de Souza} and Naiyuan Hu and Haishi Li and Yuan Mei},
keywords = {Trade sanctions, Tariffs, Tariff competition},
abstract = {What is the most cost-efficient way to impose trade sanctions against Russia? We build a quantitative model of international trade with input–output connections. Sanctioning countries choose import tariffs to simultaneously maximize their income and minimize Russia’s income, with different weights placed on these objectives. We find, first, that for countries with low willingness to pay for sanctions against Russia, the most cost-efficient sanction is an approximately 20% tariff on all Russian products. Second, if countries are willing to pay at least US$0.70 for each US$1 drop in Russian welfare, an embargo on Russia’s mining and energy products is the most cost-efficient policy.},
}

Cite

@TechReport{RePEc:fip:fedcwq:94057,
  author={Gustavo de Souza and Andre Luduvice},
  title={{Optimal Unemployment Insurance Requirements}},
  year=2022,
  month=Apr,
  institution={Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland},
  type={Working Papers},
  url={https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedcwq/94057.html},
  number={22-10R},
  abstract={In the US, workers must satisfy two requirements to receive unemployment insurance (UI): a tenure requirement of a minimum work spell and a monetary requirement of past minimum earnings. Using discontinuity of UI rules at state borders, we find that the monetary requirement decreases the number of employers and the share of part-time workers, while the tenure requirement has the opposite effect. In a quantitative model, the monetary requirement induces workers to stay longer in unemployment because low-paying jobs are not covered by UI. Since it mitigates moral hazard, the optimal UI design has a high monetary requirement.},
  keywords={Unemployment Insurance; UI Eligibility; Optimal UI},
  doi={10.26509/frbc-wp-202210r},
}

Cite

@TechReport{RePEc:fip:fedhwp:95159,
  author={Gustavo de Souza},
  title={{The Labor Market Consequences of Appropriate Technology}},
  year=2022,
  month=Sep,
  institution={Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago},
  type={Working Paper Series},
  url={https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/95159.html},
  number={WP 2022-53},
  abstract={Developing countries rely on technology created by developed countries. This paper demonstrates that such reliance increases wage inequality but leads to greater production in developing countries. I study a Brazilian innovation program that taxed the leasing of international technology to subsidize national innovation. I show that the program led firms to replace technology licensed from developed countries with in-house innovations, which led to a decline in both employment and the share of high-skilled workers. Using a model of directed technological change and technology transfer, I find that increasing the share of firms that patent in Brazil by 1 p.p. decreases the skilled wage premium by 0.02\% and production by 0.2\%},
  keywords={appropriate technology; directed technological change; innovation},
  doi={10.21033/wp-2022-53},
}

Cite

@TechReport{RePEc:fip:fedhwp:97522,
  author={Gustavo de Souza and Haishi Li},
  title={{Robots, Tools, and Jobs: Evidence from Brazilian Labor Markets}},
  year=2023,
  month=Nov,
  institution={Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago},
  type={Working Paper Series},
  url={https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/97522.html},
  number={WP 2023-42},
  abstract={What is the effect of robots and tools on employment and inequality? Using natural language processing and an instrumental variable approach, we discover that robots have led to a sizable decrease in the employment and wages of low-skill workers in operational occupations. However, tools — machines that complement labor — have led to an equally large reinstatement of these workers, increasing their employment and wages. Using a quantitative model, we find that the lower prices of robots and tools over the last 20 years have reduced inequality and increased welfare without a significant effect on employment.},
  keywords={robots; Automation; tools; Labor-augmenting},
  doi={10.21033/wp-2023-42},
}
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